Week Two Reality Check

The single greatest mistake a sports bettor can make is putting too much stock into one game's results. It is the easiest thing to do, after all, because the event is so fresh in our mind. I say this because we only have one week's worth of effort from each of the 32 teams, and yet most of us have already made up our minds about the lifeline of our respective teams.
A great example of this dynamic is the 2001 New England Patriots. For those of you who do not remember this team, a week before the season kicked off, the Patriots released Lawyer Milloy because of salary cap issues, even though he was an immensely talented and popular player still in what would be considered to be the prime of his career. Looking at that singular event based on the fact that the Patriots had yet to do much as a team up to that point gave most fans of that team a bleeding ulcer. One week later, the Patriots went up against a Buffalo team who had picked up the recently released Milloy and the result of that game was a 37-0 pasting at the hands of the Bills. If you were able to find a supporter of Bill Bellichick in the New England area that Monday morning, I would like to hire you as a private detective sometime.
A funny thing happened sometime after that game. The team realized that they were either going to have to find a way to play without the intimidating presence of Lawyer Milloy at strong safety or they were going to be the worst team in the NFL. A few months later, that same team was hoisting the Superbowl trophy in New Orleans 0after Adam Vinatieri broke the hearts of the heavily favored St. Louis Rams in one of the greatest Superbowls in history. If we made decisions about teams based on one week's worth of data, we would have no reason to watch the rest of the season. Realize that nobody is probably as good as they looked in week one and nobody is probably as bad as they looked in week one.
But Vegas loves this stuff. In the NFL, you don't get double digit spreads very often. Unless you have the Colts from last year going against the 49ers of last year, double digit spreads just don't happen in the NFL. Teams are too evenly matched due to salary caps, draft order, injuries, depth and scheduling. Somehow, however, we have five games with double digit spreads in one week. This is not because the fools in Vegas actually believe that there are five mismatches so obscene in the same week that they were forced to push the line that high. It is because the idiots out there (you and I included by the way) are so impressed by one team due to one game that the line gets pushed off the charts and out of whack. The problem, of course is that we still don't really know anything. Is Baltimore's defense really back to being the most dominant in all of football, or was Tampa's offensive horror show last week due to the injuries on an already suspect offensive line. Is Oakland the worst run franchise in all of sports or is San Diego just primed for a huge bounce back season. It is too early to tell my friends, so we must do what all good, smart gamblers do and remove the glitz and emotion from the equation and strip down our picks to what we do know (or at least what we really think we know). Confused yet. Good--it's week two you are supposed to be freaking confused. Here are this week's prognostications:

Oakland at Baltimore-12.5 This is one of those spreads that is just dripping with recent memory. Baltimore looked like world beaters last week and Oakland looked like they would get their asses kicked by Alameda High's JV squad with half of their starting offense out due to academic ineligibility. I generally caution against spreads like this one, but this game could be the springboard we need to make a ton of money betting against Baltimore in coming weeks. I just can't imagine Oakland actually scoring in this game. Baltimore will look like world beaters after two shutouts in a row and people will be jumping on their bandwagon so quickly that the spread for probably the next three weeks will be artificially too high. Stay tuned sportsfans, these picks might be real easy in the next few weeks when it comes to the overhyped, overrated Raven defense. For this week, things continue to be ugly in Oaktown. Ravens 20 Raiders 3

Houston at Indianapolis -13.5 Indianapolis just had to get through that absurd Manning bonanza on Sunday night where we were force to watch 38 commercials involving one or all of the Mannings. I just can't take it anymore. Is Peyton Manning that interesting an advertisement? How many freaking companies have jumped on this guy for their marketing needs? I may never understand the draw, but we've got another one of these lines that makes you cringe. Can you really lay some cash on Houston--on Houston? Thorin--Thorin?? (Sorry, DJ is probably the only guy out there who knows what the hell that one means, Maybe Matt R.) You Have to take the dog in this game. Indy has to prove to me that they can cover a big spread without Edge. Houston generally plays them closer than most of us would like to recall. Indy should win comfortably, but not quite two touchdowns. Colts 31 Texans 20

Cleveland at Cincinnati -10 Cleveland is one of those teams that intrigues me. Later in the season, you are not going to want to play these guys. They are getting many of their quality offensive players back and you never know which week they will break out of their dormancy. Cleveland is a football mad city and they just need a little spark to get things going. Cincinnati is an opportunistic defense (because most teams are playing catch up with their high powered offense and they can make a team one dimensional). I trust that Romeo Crennell understands this and will slow down the game from the outset. I expect some baby steps this week and a close physical game that catches the Bengals sleeping. Bengals 17 Browns 16

Buffalo at Miami -6.5 I don't get the Miami bandwagon. They have an aging defense and a quarterback learning a new system with a surgically repaired knee. 6 and a half points seems really high going against a Buffalo team who looked pretty good against New England last week. It used to be pretty cut and dry that Miami would roll out of the gate strong and build their record to either 5-0 or 6-1. The whole freaking world would jump on the Dolphin brigade only to see them start to unravel and limp into the playoffs with a 10-6 record only to get stomped in the first round. For some reason, they have gotten away from this routine and I couldn't be more disappointed. Nothing like being able to count on something these days. Going back to my belief that week one doesn't mean that much, I am going to ignore what I saw last week from Miami and Buffalo and go with my gut (not my emotion because I would angrily pick against anything from South Florida every stinking week) Dolphins 27 Bills 13

Detroit at Chicago -8.5 Detroit looked pretty damn good last week. They shut down the vaunted Seattle attack and held them to field goals in a three point loss. I don't believe that Chicigo's offense is better than Seattle's even under the most pristine conditions, and yet the Bears are a staggering eight and a half point favorite. Is this because they shut out that horrible Green Bay squad last week? Or is it because nobody buys that Detroit is that good? I like the direction they are heading in Detroit. They weren't happy with a moral victory last week and some jackass on their team guaranteed a win at Chicago this week. Detroit is one of those franchises that does just enough to get into a position to blow the game and why should this week be any different. White Sox 10 Tigers 7

Carolina at Minnesota -1.5 How in the world is Minnesota favored in this game. I love it. A week ago, we were anointing Carolina as the NFC Supergbowl representative. Minnesota was a first year coach and an over the hill game manager at QB, and now suddenly the Panthers are a road dog. Did anybody else see this team run roughshod through the playoffs on the road last season? Expect a statement game and the Viking players looking for the first party barge out of Lake Minnetonka. Also pay attention this year to the team that wins on Monday night. They almost never cover the following week. They sometimes win, but they almost never cover. This week, they do neither. Panthers 31 Vikings 9

New York Giants at Philadelphia -3 The Giants lost a heartbreaker and Philly got fat against the Texans. The Eagles have a long way to go to prove to me that they are back as the class of the NFC East--the toughest division in football from what I've been told. Oh wait, they were 1 and 3 last week, weren't they? Yeah, maybe we should hold off on anointing this division as the mightiest in all the land for at least one more week. Giants 20 Eagles 13

Tampa Bay at Atlanta -5.5 I still feel like I have throw up in my mouth after last Sunday. Thank God I had to work through most of the game and didn't know what had happened until early in the third quarter. I remember many years ago when I actually did put wagers down now and again that I learned a valuable lesson about betting on or against my beloved Bucs. I lost money every freaking time. It got to the point that I wouldn't event consider betting on them, because it was tantamount to playing the lottery or throwing $100 bills out the sunroof. You just can't take your heart out of it--not really. For the sake of the rest of you, understand that I don't feel good about any of this, but until their offensive line finds a way to patch itself up, I don't see Cadillac getting any running lanes and corners will be able to squeeze the routes knowing that there is a safety waiting over the top. It could be a long early portion of the season (it was only one game. it was only one game. it was only one game) There's that vomit taste again. Falcons 23 Bucs 9

New Orleans at Green Bay +2.5 New Orleans just makes out like a bandit getting another pushover in week two. How does this team get this schedule, when Tampa doesn't play against a team with a losing record from last year until they come up against the Saints, I may never know. Oh well, we can only play the games we're scheduled. Break up the Saints. Sean Payton for Head Coach of the Year. Wrap it up now. Expect at least three Favre interceptions and Reggie Bush getting into the end zone for the first time, and maybe the second time as well. Saints 27 Packers 2

St Louis at San Francisco +3 The Rams might be onto something. While the Niners remain the finest team in the Bay area and did actually score some points last week, they are still a four win team at the most. Their wins are not coming this week. Lay the points, take the Rams, collect your cash. Rams 24 Niners 13

Arizona at Seattle -7 They may not be able to stop anybody this year--In fact they let the Niners put up 30 plus on them last week, but the Cardinal offense is for real. By the time the season is over, there might not be a more fun offense to watch and that includes the Bengals and the Colts. Seattle needs to figure out a way to run the ball on that left side because they looked Gawd-awful last week against the Lions. I wonder if they can find Steve Hutchison's cell phone number at this point and explain that it was a big misunderstanding. I don't expect that the Deion Branch signing will make the Squawks any better for this week. They should have just enough to win, but they really need to figure out that line quickly if they want to cover. Seahawks 27 Cardinals 23

New England at New York Jets +6 This is a classic case of making too much out of week one and in the case of the Jets I should say Weak one. The Jets beat the Titans, who are really bad. I don't think that there is much love lost between NY and New England in general and Eric Mangini did not leave with the heartfelt goodbyes that were tearfully expressed to Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennell. I expect Brady and company to remind the Jets that they are indeed the Jets this week. Patriots 34 Jets 10

Tennessee at San Diego -11.5 As much as this pains me, I must stick to my guns. San Diego should run rough shod over the Titans, but these double digit spreads for a team that won on Monday night. I have to take the dog. I can't do it. Be strong, stay the course, this is like hitting on 16 against a King. You know that you probably are going to bust, but there is no other way to win. Chargers 17 Titans 10

Kansas City at Denver -10.5 This spread is only based upon the fact that Trent Green is still wondering what kind of fertilizer they use on the turf where he buried his skull this past weekend. Kansas City could be in for a long season, even when Green returns because they really, really, really miss Willie Roaf. That 2500 yards for Larry Johnson talk might have been a bit premature after all. Broncos 27 Chiefs 13

Washington at Dallas -7 No Clinton Portis. No chance for the Skins. This is a big rivalry and living here in Dallas, they do still take it seriously. Seven might be a shade high for the point spread here, but it feels about right. The Cowboys start believing their ludicrous aspirations to be a Superbowl contender after a shaky victory against the hapless Skins. I can't wait to go to work to hear all about it on Monday. Cowboys 24 Redskins 9

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville +2.5 And finally, the Monday night extravagganza. Do not expect Jacksonville to roll over and play dead. Pittsburgh is going to start to feel the pressure of having a target on their back. The Jaguars are one of those teams that has always given the Steelers fits and they enjoy a physical match up. I would expect Jacksonville to be fully prepared for Upchuck Batch or Big Ben. Being a home dog always puts a huge chip on really good team's shoulders. This one might get ugly. Jaguars 27 Steelers 10

Good luck to each of you in your selections. As always these picks are for educational purposes only.

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