"So Called Experts" Don't Know Jack

There are few things as entertaining as watching the experts of various networks (ESPN, NFL, Fox Sports, etc.) who walk into the studios for their big pre-season prediction shows to let us know who is going to be hoisting the Lombardi trophy in February. For some reason, we never get to call them out on these predictions, because if we did, they would probably all be out of jobs each March. Fortunately for their families, their livelihood is not contingent upon being correct about such things, because as I recall the sexy pick last year of the Eagles finally getting over the hump and winning the Superbowl last January didn't exactly come to fruition. In fact, they imploded by week three and were never heard from again. The Colts again stumbled in the playoffs despite every prognosticator from Bristol insisting that last year would be the year that they got over the playoff hump and finally danced in Detroit.
I find it incredible how much of an consensus is formed over the summer each year. These guys don't know any more than the rest of us, but for some reason, they all meander to the same three or four teams and by the time week 1 rolls around, they would have you convinced that these teams are worldbeaters and you can expect to pencil them into your playoff pool. Every year this happens and every year, we the public are duped into believing it to be true. I am here to tell you that they don't know their heads from their asses. I am not going to kid you and let you think that I know more than they do, but watching Trey Wingo holding court with Salisbury, Schlereth and Golic and suddenly they have a consensus about the rankings of 32 teams in every category from offensive line to coaching is ludicrous. I enjoy watching the power rankings and seeing my team gain/lose respect on a weekly basis as much as the next guy, but nobody knows who is going to be great from one year to the next and anybody who tells you otherwise is full of crap.
This is not true in college. From one year to the next, you are going to have a pretty good idea of who is going to be strong and who is going to be weak. Classes are recruited and classes graduate. You know that Southern Cal keeps recruiting the #1 or #2 classes each spring, has great coaching, great tradition and a creampuff Pac-10 schedule (sorry Esch), so there is a good chance they are going to be pretty damn good. You see Oklahoma lose their QB a month before the season begins from a team that was slightly better than average last year, and their is a good chance that there will not be a Fiesta Bowl date on their calendar. In college, you can take advantage of some incredulous early spreads and make enough money the first couple of weeks of the season to keep you fat and happy the rest of the year. In the pros, you need to tred more lightly and not get overwhelmed by the media's preseason hype and hyperbole.
In that vein, I will provide you with this week's predictions against the spread. This posting will generally come out on Saturdays during the season, but with Pittsburgh kicking off with Miami tonight, I don't have the luxury of waiting. For this week, I don't love any game more than any other and I would probably put about the same amount of cash (were I still inclined to gamble) on each game. This information as always is for entertainment value only and this column does not recommend or endorse the idea of sports wagering as a hobby or livelihood.

Miami at Pittsburgh -1
Superbowl champs are usually pretty revved up for the season opener. Tonight, however, the Steelers are going without Ben Roethlisberger who is recovering from an apendectomy. Hines Ward is probable, so I would expect to see him. It will be interesting to see how Daunte Culpepper responds to ten months of rehab on his knee in real game conditions. The Dolphins are one of those bandwagon picks--chic, hip and fun. Everybody loves what they are doing, Nick Saban is a Bellichick desciple, Culpepper gives them the first real QB since Marino, blah, blah, blah. I hate all that rhetoric and I hate the fact that they have such an easy schedule this year to make those morons sound like they know what they are talking about. Culpepper is going to look very pedestrian tonight. The Steelers will control both lines of scrimage and you can expect a very low scoring affair. Unfortunately for the champs, Charlie Batch is not a great manager of the game and the running back situation in Pittsburgh has yet to impress me after the departure of the bus. Miami 13 Pittsburgh 9.

New Orleans at Cleveland -3
Talk about your exciting week one matchups. These are two teams who should be making an upward push by midseason back to respectability. I say back to respectability because both of these teams were god awful in 2005 and have done little to make major improvements. Reggie Bush is going to be the most exciting new player in the league to watch this year, but I don't expect that to translate into too many victories--lots of SportsCenter highlights, but not victories. Cleveland will be trying to work Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow Jr. back onto the field after injuries ended their 2005 campaign. Charlie Frye has some upside, but is far from a polished NFL quarterback and will struggle for the first half of the year. I just expect for Cleveland to come out of the box a little bit sooner than New Orleans and the home opener does make a difference. Cleveland 23 New Orleans 13

Buffalo at New England -9.5
This New England team is a perfect example of bandwaggoning sports commentators. Last year, this team was average at best. They were back and forth from one week to the next and their running game was absolutely atrocious. Corey Dillon appeared to be well on his speedy downward cycle that all running back eventually achieve and the losses of Romeo Crenell and Charlie Weis were palpable. Suddenly, it is 2006 and because they have Tom Brady (no receiving corps, by the way), they are supposed to be back to being the dynasty of the past five years. Every year they lose more leaders from this team--this year it is Willie McGinnest and assistant coach Eric Mangini, but everybody is in love with this team. It has to be the easy schedule, because I just don't see this team being a shadow of its former self. The one thing they have going for them is that they play Buffalo at home week one. It would be an almost impossible task to lose this one, but I don't see them covering. New England 27 Buffalo 20

NYJets at Tennessee -2.5
This is another one that we have all had circled on our calendars for a long time. That's right, the week that one of these teams actually gets a win. Nobody really expected more than one for either of these teams, but right out of the gate, one of these two train wrecks will actually be leading their respective division. Do I have to actually pick a winner here? Millions of gamblers out there are fretting that their sure thing money line pick (picking a team to either win or lose straight up--no points involved) is devoid for week one. Thank God we still have the Niners. Throw a dart at the board. NY Jets 5 Tennessee 2

Philadelphia at Houston +5.5
Philly is one of those teams who is picking up steam as a trendy pick this year. Purging themselves of the TO debacle could do nothing but point this team in the right direction, but after watching what happened to a once proud SF franchise after Owens' departure, I don't buy the fact that there is an immediate rebound and that all the stench has been removed from the once pristine locker room. But much like some of the other games, Philly gets to open against Houston--the team who will almost certainly go down in history as those jackasses who passed on Reggie Bush--even more comical now that we realize that Domanick Davis is probably out for the season (information that aparently Chuck Casserly and the gang had at the time of the draft), and the entire move was solely because they didn't want to have to deal with Bush's agent. Good times for all. Houston is destined to be a doormat for the next 20 years. Besides I love It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia. I may not pick against these guys all year. Philadelphia 27 Houston 6

Denver at St Louis +3.5
I just don't get Denver. They are mediocre at best, yet they managed 13 wins last year plus were handed that freebie over the Patriots in the playoffs when New England decided that they wanted to spend more time with their families and Eric Mangini needed to do some interviewing. Either way, I just don't get it. They just find a way to continue to win without a whole lot going for them. St. Louis should need a little while to get back to form, but will still put up points in the dome. I don't have a strong feeling either way about Scott Linehan as the coach, but he has to be a refreshing change from the Genius, Mike Martz. Denver 24 St. Louis 17

Cincinnati at Kansas City -2
Didn't Cincinnati go 11-5 or 12-4 last season? Don't they have Carson Palmer? Didn't he still look like Carson Palmer in the preseason? The Chiefs lost Willie Roaf. If anybody out there thinks that Larry Johnson can run for 2000 yards without Willie Roaf on the left side, they are crazy. The fun thing is that he will probably get about 40 carries in this game because Cincinnati is not known for defense yet, Herm Edwards is as conservative a coach as you will find and they will want to slow the game down because Cincinnati will probably score on their first five drives. Expect a high scoring game this week. Cincinnati 34 Kansas City 20

Atlanta at Carolina -5
I'll be keeping an eye on this one. I have heard more about these two teams than I care to discuss. Being that they are our chief NFC South rivals currently, I am anxious to see what they are capable of doing. Everybody (so called experts especially) are jumping on the Carolina bandwagon. These guys have already bought tickets to Miami and have booked their rooms. The injury bug always seems to hit this team, but if they are healthy, they look to be the class of the NFC. Schedule is going to kick all of our asses in this division, so the winner of this game is very important to establish the early leader. Atlanta is going into season three with Vick and Mora together. Up to now, I haven't been too impressed. They need to show me something before I jump off Carolina's bandwagon for this week. Carolina 31 Atlanta 10

Seattle at Detroit +6
Do you think that the Seahawks have good memories of the last time they were in Detroit? Maybe this time, they switch hotels or take a different route to Ford Field or send some heavies to deal with the referees before the game. Recent history tells us that the Superbowl loser goes into a tailspin the following season, but Seattle has such a joke of a schedule and such a weak division, unless Hasselbeck and Alexander go down with season ending ACL injuries, they still are the class of the NFC West (the crown jewel of all of football). I love Rod Marinelli in Detroit--Mike Martz, not so much. Detroit will improve this year, but not by week 1.
Seattle 34 Detroit 13

Baltimore at Tampa Bay -3
All I have heard all preseason is that Carolina is going to win the NFC South. Atlanta will make a push in year three of the Mora regime and that Reggie Bush is the greatest running back since Gale Sayers. If I am not mistaken, and I am relatively certain that I am not, Tampa Bay won the NFC South last year. They went 5-1 in the division and even managed to find a way to beat Carolina (the unstoppable force) on the road in a December game that could have iced the division for the Panthers. There is nothing more motivating in all of sports than the us against the world/no respect factor. Tampa came out of nowhere last year to earn their respect back and the calendar has turned and they are right back at square one. Nothing excites me more. Baltimore is another one of those trendy picks that the boys up at ESPN headquarters are just salivating over. I really don't get it--Jamal Lewis looked like an absolute dog after his prison term. Steve McNair looks like he has been run through a meat grinder and their vaunted defense is living on a name only at this point as Ray Lewis is just a year older at this point. I love Tampa to come out and reestablish themselves as a legitimate contender. Respect This! Tampa Bay 27 Baltimore 3

All right--I am going to be late for work, so I need to cut the afternoon and evening games short. Here are the picks:

Chicago at Green Bay +3.5 Chicago 27 Green Bay 6
San Fran at Arizona -9 Arizona 16 San Fran 13
Dallas at Jacksonville -2 Jacksonville 24 Dallas 10
Indianapolis at NY Giants +3 Indianapolis 31 NY Giants 20
Minnesota at Washington -4.5 Minnesota 16 Washington 6
San Diego at Oakland +3 San Diego 23 Oakland 0